Inflationary Observables Without an Inflaton
A categorical pre-registration versus end-of-2025 CMB and BAO constraints
A pre-registration note placing the categorical inflationary pair against late-2025 CMB and BAO constraints.
Publication Metadata
Anchor paper: Balkenhol et al., end-of-2025 CMB and BAO constraints on inflationary observables.
Review status: Program pre-registration; external review not yet completed.
Abstract
The note compares the Panta Rhei no-inflaton pre-registration for the tensor-to-scalar ratio and scalar spectral index with late-2025 CMB and BAO constraints. It separates the framework's internal commitment from external acceptance and identifies near-term falsification routes.
Anchor Paper and Context
End-of-2025 CMB and BAO inflation constraints
The anchor result summarizes the observational state of the scalar spectral index and tensor-to-scalar ratio within standard inflationary model families.
Relation to this note: Used as the empirical comparison plane for a categorical no-inflaton pre-registration.
Claim Boundary
Core Claim
The framework pre-registers inflationary observables from the fibered-product structure rather than from a scalar inflaton potential.
What This Note Does Not Claim
- It does not claim that standard inflationary model classes are mathematically inconsistent.
- It does not claim that CMB and BAO data have externally accepted the categorical interpretation.
- It does not bypass future CMB B-mode falsification.
Falsification and Challenge Surface
- A confirmed tensor-to-scalar ratio outside the stated categorical window.
- A scalar spectral index measurement incompatible with the structural e-fold count.
- Failure of the no-inflaton derivation chain or measurement bridge.
Verification Surface
Reading Note
The PDF contains the full argument. This web page records the public metadata, claim boundary, verification posture, and related site surfaces for the citable Research Note artifact.